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PHEVs produce almost 5x more global warming pollution than official figures show, as per a new analysis.

Widening Discrepancy In Official and Real-World CO2 Output

Statistics shows that PHEVs emit just 19% lower CO₂ than traditional gas and diesel vehicles, based on research conducted by a non-profit organization. This contrasts sharply with laboratory estimates, which assumed a 75% reduction in pollution.

Analysts studied information from onboard energy use meters of eight hundred thousand vehicles sold in the EU between 2021 and 2023. The team found that real-world CO₂ emissions from PHEVs in 2023 were nearly five times higher than official figures, increased from three and a half times in 2021.

“Real-world emissions are rising, while official emissions are falling,” said a lead analyst involved in the study. “This gap is growing and creates a serious issue. As a result, PHEVs emit nearly as heavily as petrol cars.”

Key Factors Behind the Emissions Gap

Researchers attributed most of the difference to inflated estimates of the “utility factor” – the percentage of kilometers travelled in electric power compared to overall mileage. They determined that just a quarter of travel was completed in electric mode, whereas lab assumptions assumed over four-fifths.

Additionally, when running in electric mode, emission amounts were well above official estimates. That happened because electric motors were not strong enough to operate alone, resulting to combustion motors using gasoline for almost one-third of the travel covered in EV mode.

Regulatory and Financial Consequences

Based on estimates, the underestimation of PHEV CO2 output enabled four major carmaker companies to avoid over €5bn in fines from 2021 and 2023, by falsely easing compliance with EU fleet-average CO₂ standards.

Additionally, drivers of PHEVs could spend approximately €500 extra annually in operating costs than would be estimated under laboratory tests.

“The bold statements that manufacturers like to make about their PHEV vehicles are obviously far from the mark,” commented a transport analyst. “Consumers are being duped into thinking that by buying a PHEV, they are helping the environment and saving money. In reality, PHEVs are only slightly improved than regular gas and diesel vehicles in terms of energy use, CO₂ production, and running costs.”

Political Debate and Automotive Pressure

Hybrid vehicles have recently been brought back into political debates as automakers have pressed the European Union to weaken CO₂ standards. A proposed ban on new internal combustion vehicles in 2035 has faced heavy lobbying from the automotive sector and opposition from member states with large automotive manufacturing.

Some senior officials have suggested plug-in hybrids as a possible “compromise” option to include in the regulation.

An independent energy economics expert, who was unaffiliated with the study, called the report a “very useful contribution” after a long period in which segments of the automotive industry argued there was insufficient data to properly evaluate actual CO2 output.

“These findings show, without question, that the difference in official and real-world PHEV energy use and CO₂ emissions is significantly larger than for gasoline or diesel cars,” they said. “Any policy adjustments regarding PHEVs should be made with extreme care and in the light of this data.”