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A decade after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that polarised the nation and triggered turmoil, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is prepared.

That represents the warning from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Structures Unprepared

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.

"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."

Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion

The duo have studied the political, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to stir debate on the matter with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.

"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.

"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely split population where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there could be a national vote.

Insufficient Serious Debate

Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, stated McBride.

"People tend to be for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in academia but very few government figures or advocates want to engage even with the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the publication, no writer endorses unification or the status quo. Each authors two articles that seek objectivity in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and social figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.

Arguments range over national emblems, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and encourage discussion.

"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the notion that there may exist good arguments on either side."

Dual Referendums

A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they support unification but oppose increased taxation or adopting a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.

"The Irish government must determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.

Possibility of Referendum

McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"

Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, justified arguments, he said. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will in the end be defeated but all factions has has valuable insights to gain from the alternative arguments."

Call for Wider Debate

Westminster must engage with the discussion, stated the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."